Who could be the surprise team of 2024?

It's the most repeated question after the end of the season: who could be the surprise team of 2024? Will anyone manage to challenge the Milton Keynes team or even surpass it?

Red Bull experienced an almost impeccable season in 2023. If it hadn't been for Carlos Sainz's victory in Singapore, Max Verstappen's absolute dominance would have marked the entire year. 2023 was characterized by reliability, performance, and the unbeatability of the Dutch driver, leading Red Bull to total control of the races. This often made the competitions predictable and at times lacking the typical excitement of this sport.

Drivers, teams, fans, sponsors and even Liberty Media's commercial rights holders are all hoping for a new season with a more open fight for the podium, which will kick off in Bahrain next March.The answer to this question isn't simple. The first clues will come from the presentations of the new cars in February and the initial track tests. Meanwhile, we can start with what happened in 2023 and what it might suggest for 2024.

What to expect from Ferrari

After a challenging start marked by a lack of consistency on the track and a SF-23 that performed well in qualifying but was too demanding on the tires, Ferrari showed its potential only on high-speed circuits like Singapore and Monza. However, thanks to work done during the summer break, the team made significant progress in the latter half of 2023.

But what does Ferrari need in 2024? Stability in regulations and Pirelli tyres might favor a potential comeback, allowing them to surpass their third-place finish in the 2023 Constructors' Championship. This could rectify previous errors and bring an evolution of the SF-23 to the track, assisting the drivers not just in qualifying but also in better tire management during races.

Thanks to post-season tests, the Maranello team could focus on the correlation between simulations and track performance, optimizing strategies and enhancing consistency on different tracks. Despite talk of optimizing the SF-23, Enrico Cardile, head of the chassis area, stated they're working on a "completely new" project with changes up to 95% compared to the retired SF-23.

Ferrari was the only team capable of adding a touch of red to Singapore in a calendar dominated by blue victories. After a long title drought dating back to 2008, the team has the resources to be the surprise team of 2024.

And what about McLaren?

At the start of the season, with only 17 points in the first eight races, few would have believed McLaren could become a genuine rival for Red Bull. With significant upgrades introduced during the Austrian Grand Prix in July, the Woking team experienced a marked improvement in 2023.

In the latter part of the season, McLaren secured the position of the second-highest scoring team after Red Bull, partly due to Lando Norris scoring more points overall than Red Bull's number two, Checo Pérez. The team also took a significant step forward by constructing a new wind tunnel, representing a substantial technological advancement compared to McLaren's long-standing reliance on the structure at Toyota Motorsport in Germany, which the team had depended on for over a decade.

With Norris under contract until the end of 2025 and Oscar Piastri, the 2023 Rookie of the Year who pretended not to be one with excellent results, securing an extension until 2026, McLaren also boasts a solid driver lineup to become a threat to Red Bull.

Mercedes re-launched

With a recent history of victories (15 championships out of 16 won between 2014 and 2021), Mercedes should be considered the team with the best chance of challenging Red Bull. This year too, the car suffered from tire wear problems and inconsistencies, exacerbated by the performance gap between Hamilton and Russell, third and eighth in the drivers' standings respectively, hindering Toto Wolff's team from competing at the desired level.

Mercedes introduced a new car concept with the Monaco Grand Prix update but anticipates drastic changes in the architecture for the 2024 model during the winter, aiming for a significant leap forward.

Aston Martin: Will they be the surprise team of the year?

If we talk about surprises, Aston Martin was a protagonist in the early part of 2023. With Fernando Alonso ready to fight and displaying a champion's motivation that, despite his 42 years, made him seem like a podium debutant. Mike Krack, CEO of Aston Martin, announced that the Formula 1 car for 2024 will be an evolution of the AMR23, with the ambition to challenge Red Bull and, above all, to secure Alonso's 33rd victory.

The longest season ever

Next year will be the longest with 24 races, including six sprint races like Miami and Shanghai, experiencing this format for the first time. Continuous development in Milton Keynes, as demonstrated in 2023, doesn't guarantee victory if the competition has an advantage similar to RB19's. "This season, I doubt will repeat in my lifetime," stated team principal Christian Horner.

Whether Red Bull will again be the surprise of 2024, remaining invincible, or if another team will manage to beat them, we'll only find out for sure from February.