Has Carlos Sainz made the right decision in choosing Williams?

Carlos Sainz has made his decision. The 29-year-old Spaniard has chosen Williams as his new team after his last season with Ferrari.

© Scuderia Ferrari Media Centre

It is a choice that has surprised many, causing disbelief and even discontent. Sainz has shown that he's on an upward trajectory in his career, with three wins in the last three years (remember, 2023 was practically dominated by Verstappen). His performances have earned him a place in a top team.

But that top team hasn't happened. F1 can sometimes be unfair and this is one of those times. Toto Wolff's ambition to sign Max Verstappen or back a young driver like Kimi Antonelli has destroyed Sainz's chances of joining Mercedes. Meanwhile, Red Bull's conservative strategy of not upsetting Max by sticking with Checo Pérez for the second half of the season has left Sainz without options for a team with podium potential.

So, knowing that a top team wasn't an option, did Carlos make the best decision by choosing Williams?

I'm Spanish, Carlos is my favourite driver and I live in Italy. It was hard enough to accept his departure from Ferrari, but to accept that he can only go to a second team is even harder. So what I'm about to write is something I've thought a lot about after reading a lot (especially from my favourite media, like The Race or the one and only Roberto Chinchero).

So if you ask me, yes, it's the best option. Apart from the fact that I think Carlos is one of the most complete drivers on the grid, both mentally and athletically, I think he has made wise decisions throughout his career, which hasn't been easy (remember he's been through Toro Rosso, Renault, McLaren and Ferrari). He's a driver who knows how to make the most of opportunities, even when there aren't any. I often remember Andrea Stella's interview on Sky Italia: "The experience with Carlos at McLaren was extremely formative for everyone. He brought a way of working, a cultural element that created an environment that was conducive to success.”

Williams will certainly benefit more from Carlos than Carlos from Williams, but let's analyse why this is the best option he had left on the table:

© F1

The historic record

9 World Constructors' Championships, 128 pole positions, 114 victories. Piquet, Mansell, Prost, Hill and Villeneuve are some of the names that have contributed to the 7 Drivers' World Championships. The great Ayrton Senna chose Williams, a team he couldn't win with due to his tragic accident at Imola, where he lost his life in 1994. Certainly, history is history and the Williams of today is a far cry from the Frank Williams project of the 80s and 90s. But for those new to F1, it's good to remember that this is a historic team that knows what it means to race and win, despite not taking a victory since 2012 and a podium since 2021.

The Vowles Project

"History made. History in the making" is the current motto of the Grove team, and I think it very well describes the trend the team is following and where Carlos could fit in very well, whether for a short or long period of time. Vowles, who was Head of Strategy at Mercedes AMG before becoming Team Principal at Williams, brings a breath of fresh air to the English project, and not just with a different mentality at management level. The main problem with the team's decline in recent years has been a lack of funding to run a solid project up to modern F1 standards. This has begun to change with the acquisition of the team by Dorilton Ventures in 2020, who have embarked on a thorough and long-term restructuring project to rebuild a solid foundation. While it may not be a project with immediate impact, Vowles' choice of team principal has already brought in Pat Fry (ex Ferrari) as technical director, expanded the team to around 1000 employees (including recently announced key personnel) and persuaded a driver like Alex Albon to commit long-term.

Carlos' presence in this puzzle can certainly contribute significantly to the team's growth and, why not, to his own, in an unfavourable and uncomfortable situation, but in a project that offers much more security than Sauber/Audi, with recent changes and doubts about the project's immediate competitiveness, and with even more uncertainty following Seidl's departure and Binotto's arrival even before the project has been taken over. Alpine, the other viable option, doesn't present a stable picture either, even with the arrival of Flavio Briatore, with team principal Bruno Famin leaving after only 12 months in the role and doubts about abandoning the Renault engine to become a customer team.

The Sainz-Albon pairing

In the last two years, especially since Vowles joined the team, the team has practically been missing a driver. The Albon-Sargeant duo hasn't fully exploited the potential of a team that needs both drivers to score points, and the American driver has certainly contributed little more than the fervour of his nationality. With Carlos' arrival, not only will Williams have a pair of drivers far beyond their potential as a team, but Sainz will test Albon and vice versa, which could be the key to taking the team to another level.

© F1

The Engine

While in 2025 the car will be a continuation and improvement of the FW46, which presumably won't reach the podium, the current single-seater is the result of a disastrous and unusual winter for the Grove team. The main consequences have fallen on the car's weight, which has been 10 to 15 kg above the limit, costing approximately 0.45 seconds per lap. An improvement that will surely take all year but could translate into a clear performance increase for the next car.

But Williams' interesting bet comes from 2026 onwards. The most drastic changes of the V6 turbo hybrid era will test all the teams on the grid, and Mercedes seems to have a certain advantage. If so, Williams as a customer will directly benefit, possibly placing the team in a very different position compared to their current rivals.

The driver market from 2026 onwards

It's likely that Carlos will have a drought year in terms of podiums and, more importantly, wins, but 2025 doesn't really matter here, it's 2026. The Spaniard will still be 32 years old, and once all the teams' cards are revealed and their title chances are known, the driver market will move accordingly. This opens up another opportunity for Carlos to try his hand at a top team if Williams isn't up to scratch, as his contract with the team (which is surely what made him sign) runs until 2026, with the possibility of an extension. This gives the Spaniard a guaranteed seat for the next two years, allowing him to recalibrate his career in line with the new regulations, because ultimately the goal will still be to race for the best team that can provide a car worthy of a driver who has shown effort, consistency and a desire to win.

@outoftheboxf1